San Diego

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	143.0
Current RPI:	143
Expected SOS:	156
Current SOS:	156
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-3
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	112
Expected OOC SOS:	221

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	143.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Diego.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	64-81	W	100%
11-15	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	65-53	W	100%
11-18	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	H	71-62	W	100%
11-20	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	66-52	W	100%
11-25	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	62-72	W	100%
11-30	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	57-66	L	0%
12-2	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	67-57	L	0%
12-6	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	60-65	W	100%
12-9	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	79-51	W	100%
12-12	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	59-69	W	100%
12-16	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	83-86	L	0%
12-28	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	73-63	W	100%
12-30	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	74-66	W	100%
1-4	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	74-81	W	100%
1-6	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	70-63	L	0%
1-11	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	74-70	L	0%
1-13	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	75-71	W	100%
1-18	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	49-55	L	0%
1-20	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	74-58	L	0%
1-25	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	66-58	W	100%
1-27	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	82-89	W	100%
2-1	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	69-59	L	0%
2-3	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	62-65	L	0%
2-8	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	66-68	W	100%
2-10	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	70-64	L	0%
2-15	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	55-67	L	0%
2-17	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	75-62	W	100%
2-22	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	72-77	L	0%
2-24	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	61-64	W	100%
3-3	BYU (67.0)	WCC	N	85-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Diego's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Diego's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Diego.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Diego	WCC	26.38	26.38	56.08	56.08	3.21	3.21
BYU	WCC	5.96	5.96	70.97	70.97	2.50	2.50
Gonzaga	WCC	4.45	4.45	87.50	87.50	3.34	3.34
Saint Mary's	WCC	4.42	4.42	83.87	83.87	3.00	3.00
Pepperdine	WCC	4.37	4.37	17.24	17.24	-2.86	-2.86
San Francisco	WCC	4.37	4.37	56.67	56.67	0.58	0.58
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.34	4.34	35.71	35.71	-1.24	-1.24
Santa Clara	WCC	4.33	4.33	33.33	33.33	-1.44	-1.44
Portland	WCC	4.31	4.31	22.22	22.22	-2.39	-2.39
Pacific	WCC	4.28	4.28	37.93	37.93	-1.03	-1.03
San Jose St.	MWC	1.89	1.89	10.71	10.71	-1.48	-1.48
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.83	1.83	67.74	67.74	0.65	0.65
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.80	1.80	86.21	86.21	1.30	1.30
San Diego St.	MWC	1.77	1.77	66.67	66.67	0.59	0.59
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.77	1.77	68.97	68.97	0.67	0.67
Robert Morris	NEC	1.75	1.75	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	1.75	1.75	20.69	20.69	-1.02	-1.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.75	1.75	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Northern Arizona	BSky	1.72	1.72	13.79	13.79	-1.25	-1.25
Colorado	P12	1.67	1.67	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
North Texas	CUSA	1.67	1.67	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
Nevada	MWC	0.30	0.30	79.41	79.41	0.18	0.18
UC Riverside	BW	0.24	0.24	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Seattle	WAC	0.24	0.24	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.24	0.24	16.67	16.67	-0.16	-0.16
Arizona St.	P12	0.24	0.24	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Boise St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	73.33	73.33	0.10	0.10
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.22	0.22	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	WAC	0.21	0.21	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
Utah St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Wyoming	MWC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.19	0.19	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
UC Irvine	BW	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
USC	P12	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
UNLV	MWC	0.16	0.16	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.15	0.15	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Chicago St.	WAC	0.14	0.14	3.33	3.33	-0.13	-0.13
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Stanford	P12	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.13	0.13	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Fresno St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
California	P12	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Montana St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.07	0.07	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.06	0.06	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.06	0.06	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02